Weather Highlights from Rich Apuzzo - June 18, 2008
In the big picture today, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be found from the southeastern United States (Florida, Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi) west into Texas and Oklahoma. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also develop in the western plains from Oklahoma to North Dakota and over parts of Montana, Wyoming and Colorado. Severe storms are expected from Texas to the Dakotas with large hail and damaging winds likely. Scattered showers with a few thundershowers will develop from Ohio into Pennsylvania and across much of New England with cooler-than-normal weather from the Midwest into the northeast states. The heat is on across the southwest with highs in the 90s and low 100s from Texas into New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and southern California.
Here in the Tri-State, the day started cool once again with morning lows in the lower 50s, and with a few clouds, temperatures are in the 60s heading for the mid 70s this afternoon. The first two weeks of summer were rather warm here, but we’re offsetting much of that warming this week, and temperatures will stay below normal into the weekend. Any complaints?
There is a weak disturbance (are of lift in the atmosphere) crossing the Midwest and it will enhance cloud development by midday with spotty showers or thunderstorms this afternoon. Coverage will be less than 30%, so don’t cancel any plans, and don’t be surprised if you see nothing more than partly sunny skies all day.
Since I get asked this quite often, here is what 30% means. Computer models generate the probability of precipitation (POP) for areas on a model grid. If you placed an imaginary grid over a map of the Tri-State and it contained 100 squares of equal size, then a 30% chance of rain for that grid area means that 30 of those squares will likely see precipitation. Since we don’t know which parts of the grid will get rain, everyone has a 30% chance for rain (or 50% or whatever the number is that day). Therefore, it is proper to say that 30% of our forecast area is expecting rain today, and it is also okay to say that where you are reading this you have a 30% chance of seeing rain. Does that make sense?
Today’s spotty showers and thunderstorms will be driven by the sun’s warmth, so once the sun sets, the showers will end and the clouds will fade away. The atmosphere above us is rather cold today, so any thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to produce small hail, vivid lightning and very strong winds. Overall, I expect only spotty, light showers. In fact, we have a few sprinkles crossing Preble, Montgomery and Butler Counties as I type this.
Partly to mostly sunny skies return tomorrow and Friday with highs in the upper 70s to near 80, and morning lows in the 50s. However, if you’re traveling to central or northern Ohio, you may run into passing showers tomorrow, Friday and right through the weekend as an unsettled pattern hangs on over the Great Lakes. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms in the Ohio Valley will be Saturday as another disturbance crosses the area…though coverage on Saturday will likely be around 50%.